关键词: 气候变化, 情景, 温室气体, 物种分布模型, 集合预测

Abstract: A better understanding of spatial variation of potential suitable habitats for evergreen broadleaf forest in China will play an extremely significant role in biodiversity conservation, vegetation restoration, and regional planning in the future. Based on the latest climate scenario data published in the 5^th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , changes in potential suitable habitat for evergreen broadleaf forest under predicted changing climate till 2050s were predicted with the aid of ModEco, a multi-model ensemble forecasting platform for prediction of species distribution. Results show that climate change will lead to expansion of the area of potential suitable habitat for evergreen broadleaf forest, mainly in the southeast and south parts of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The higher the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the more significant the expansion.

Key words: climate change, scenario, greenhouse gas, species distribution model, ensemble forecasting